War in Israel: Update on Current Situation

June 26, 2025 – October 7 War, Day 629, 50 hostages remain in captivity

After 12 days of fighting, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran is holding firm. As focus returns to Hamas and the hostages, 7 Israeli soldiers were killed this week in an attack by terrorists in Gaza.

The American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee (JDC) will hold a webinar presenting a situational update from Israel explaining how JDC is expanding its emergency response by providing support to the most vulnerable. Today, Thursday, June 26 at noon (ET).

---

Ceasefire with Iran

• The ceasefire with Iran is holding firm. No missiles have been fired at Israel, and the Jewish state has not launched any attacks on Iran. There are no specific signs that the agreement will be breached at this stage.
• All of the IDF Home Front Command’s directives have been lifted. Schools have reopened, gatherings are permitted, and citizens have returned to work.
• Ben Gurion Airport has resumed full operations, even extending landings and take-offs to 24 hours a day (usually take-offs are banned between 1:00 am-5:00 am, due to noise levels). Israeli carriers are working around the clock to clear the backlog and bring home citizens who have been stranded abroad since before the war, and help those tourists wishing to leave the Jewish state. The majority of foreign carriers have not yet resumed flights, but many are expected to make announcements about returning to Israel soon.
• A Channel 12 Israel TV poll conducted immediately after the ceasefire began found that 49% of Israelis support the ceasefire, 39% oppose it, and 12% are undecided. Some 63% of Israelis believe that Israel won the war, while only 3% say Iran won.
• See detailed summaries and analysis of the Iran-Israel war below.

Gaza and Hostage Negotiations

• On Tuesday, seven IDF soldiers from the same battalion were killed in southern Gaza. The young men were killed in Khan Yunis when a Hamas terrorist attached an explosive device to their Armored Personnel Carrier, setting the vehicle on fire with the soldiers trapped inside. The seven fallen were:
  • Matan Shai Yashinovski, 21, from Kfar Yona
  • Ronel Ben-Moshe, 20, from Rehovot
  • Niv Radia, 20, from Elyakhin
  • Ronen Shapiro, 19, from Mazkeret Batya
  • Shahar Manoav, 21, from Ashkelon
  • Maayan Baruch Pearlstein, 20, from Eshhar
  • Alon Davidov, 21, from Kiryat Yam
• With the war against Iran now over, there has been talk of Israel returning its focus to Gaza. Some in government are urging a strong push to destroy Hamas. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Israel will turn “all our strength to Gaza, to complete the task.”
• Nonetheless, Israeli media reports that numerous voices are emerging from within the government arguing that it may be time to end the war. Yesterday, United Torah Judaism MK Moshe Gafni, a member of the ruling coalition, declared that he “does not understand what we are fighting for in Gaza,” adding: “What are we going to do there that’s worth soldiers being killed all the time?”
• Reports persist that both Israel and Hamas are moving closer to a deal – possibly even a final deal that will end the fighting permanently, and see all hostages returned. Some US sources have suggested that a new deal could include an expansion of the Abraham Accords to additional countries.

The Israel-Iran War Concludes: Summary and Analysis

There is a strong consensus in Israel that Israel not only won the war with Iran, but that it was a remarkable victory of historic proportions. While tragically, 29 civilians lost their lives in Iranian missile attacks, not a single IDF soldier fell as a result of the current war – a globally unprecedented accomplishment.

In an address to the nation on Tuesday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “In the 12 days of Operation Rising Lion, we achieved a historic victory, which will stand for generations. We removed two existential threats: The threat of annihilation by nuclear weapons and the threat of annihilation by 20,000 ballistic missiles. Had we not acted now, the State of Israel would have soon faced the danger of annihilation. But this did not happen because at the decisive moment, we rose up and stood like lions, and our roar shook Tehran and echoed around the world.” See full remarks here.

Israel’s Campaign

• Israel conducted hundreds of air sorties across Iran during 12 days of fighting, without the loss of a single jet or soldier. See these previously unreleased photos and footage of Israel Air Force planes on the 1,200-mile journey from Israel to Iran.
• Over 250 missile launchers were destroyed — more than two-thirds of Iran’s known launchers.
• Israel eliminated the country’s top military echelon, including 29 Iranian officers with the rank of brigadier general and higher, as well as at least 10 of the country’s most important nuclear scientists involved in the development of nuclear weapons.
• The majority of missile production facilities were rendered permanently inoperable.
• It is estimated that over 50% of Iran’s missile program (launchers, missiles, and production capacity) was neutralized.
• More than 90 air defense batteries and dozens of radar stations were destroyed, enabling complete Israeli aerial dominance over Iranian airspace.
• While the lion’s share of the IDF campaign was conducted by the air force, yesterday, the IDF Chief of Staff said that the success of the war was also due, in no small measure, to the activities of Israeli special-forces who operated on the ground inside Iran (a fact not previously disclosed). This, he maintained, allowed the Air Force to strike so successfully.

Nuclear Facilities

• It remains unknown whether Iran’s nuclear program has been set back by months, years, or longer.
• Before the conflict, Iran possessed approximately 409 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% — beyond civilian needs but below the 90% threshold required for nuclear weapons. It is unclear where that uranium was stored, if it was destroyed, or where it is now. If it were located in the known nuclear sites such as Fordow, Natanz, or Esfahan, there is a strong possibility it was destroyed during the Israeli air campaign. However, if Iran anticipated an attack and relocated the uranium to undisclosed sites, it may have survived the strikes.
• Similarly, while Israel and the U.S. inflicted major damage on known centrifuge infrastructure, there is no confirmation that all centrifuges were destroyed.
• It is possible that Iran had secretly built additional centrifuge facilities over the years to create redundancy in case of such an attack. If Iran retains even a portion of both the enriched uranium and some centrifuges, it could theoretically resume enrichment to weapons-grade levels.
• Nonetheless, most experts agree that it is difficult to see Iran undertaking such activity shortly, given the close surveillance by Israel, the United States, and the international community. Perhaps even more significantly, even if Iran succeeds in producing weapons-grade uranium, it would still need to develop and integrate a delivery system, which would also likely be detected and disrupted by Israeli and U.S. intelligence.
• Following the U.S. attack on Iran, President Donald Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been “decimated.” However, CNN and The New York Times have reported that the program was not destroyed and that Iran could potentially rebuild it within months. CNN assessed that the war has delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions by only a few months, rather than delivering a long-term setback. In response, President Trump maintained his position, stating the media does not have all the facts and reaffirmed his claim of severe damage. In a surprising revelation, the President further stated that Mossad agents had visited Fordow and assessed the damage firsthand, though Israel has not officially confirmed this report. See the New York Times: Centrifuges at Fordo ‘No Longer Operational,’ U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Head Says
• Yesterday, the IDF said that “in accordance with the estimates of our Intelligence, the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is not local but rather systemic. The aggregate success allows us to state that the blow to Iran’s nuclear program was hard, wide and deep and it has been pushed back by years. We will not allow Iran to produce weapons of mass destruction.”
• The elimination of key nuclear scientists has also made it significantly harder for Iran to revive its nuclear efforts in the short term.

Iranian Attacks on Israel

• Iran launched 525 ballistic missiles at Israel:
  • 50–60 missiles struck targets.
  • The interception success rate was over 90%.
  • Iran also launched 983 explosive UAVs (drones):
  • All but one were intercepted without causing damage.
  • The UAV interception success rate was 99%.

Israeli Casualties and Damage

• 29 Israelis were killed and over 3,250 were injured, mostly lightly.
• 170 remain hospitalized.
• The relatively low casualty rate compared to the very high amount of physical destruction is being attributed to significant levels of civilian discipline. The war was marked by the widespread use of safe rooms and shelters, which are credited with saving many lives.

Economic Impact

• There was an estimated $2 billion in physical damage (excluding military costs) as a result of missile damage.
• The total economic impact — including war costs and broader disruption — is estimated to be at least $10 billion.
• This adds to the already significant financial strain from the ongoing war in Gaza, affecting Israel’s deficit and cost of living. The 2025 government budget will likely need to be adjusted.

Iran’s Internal Stability and Regime Outlook

• It remains to be seen how the war will affect the stability of the Islamic regime in Tehran, and particularly the position of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
• Israeli media has carried numerous reports about “rumblings of discontent” within Tehran’s leadership, with blame beginning to surface — quietly — against Khamenei for having led Iran into a costly war with no strategic gain. There are some reports that Khameini himself has retreated into his private quarters and is deeply depressed.
• Commentators agree that the likelihood of a popular uprising or counter-revolution is difficult to predict. The Iranian leadership is actively portraying the war as a victory, showing (often false or doctored) images of Israeli casualties and destruction, and heavily relying on AI-generated disinformation, including fabricated footage of Israeli jets being downed and airports destroyed.
• Reuters is reporting that  Iranian authorities are pivoting from a ceasefire with Israel to intensifying an internal security crackdown across the country with mass arrests, executions, and military deployments. See more here.
• Since October 7, Iran’s regional standing has dramatically weakened, with most of its allies decimated. Hamas has been significantly set back; Hezbollah has retreated into Lebanon, never firing a shot in solidarity with Iran; the Houthis are under sustained international attack; the Assad regime in Syria is no more; pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are disappearing. As a result, Iran is increasingly isolated, and the twelve-day war revealed its inability to match Israel militarily. In short, the Shi’ite axis has collapsed as a credible threat, significantly altering the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
• Also, see this interview with Natan Sharansky: ‘The Iranian regime was exposed before its people as a paper tiger’

Further Reading

• Sami Rahamim, an Iranian Jew, and Ali Alizadeh, a prominent Iranian-American businessman, write: The relationship the Iranian and Jewish people should have
• Col. John Spencer: Winners and Losers of the 12-Day Israel-Iran War
• Alma Research: After The Strikes, What’s Next for The Iranian Threat?
• Opinion from Ynet: “Over two weeks, Israel and the US reshaped the Middle East with coordinated strikes on Iran;  what began as preemption became alliance, exposing a new axis of power—and forcing Jews worldwide to confront a historic shift in identity.” Read more here.
• The Jewish Chronicle: Netanyahu and Trump showed the kind of resolve Churchill himself would have saluted

And to conclude with some good news: Two Israeli basketball players, Ben Saraf and Danny Wolf, were picked in the first round of the NBA draft and will play together for the Brooklyn Nets. This is the first time that two Israeli players have been picked for the draft in the same year; the first time that two Israelis will play on the same team; and the first time that there will be three Israelis in the NBA at the same time (they are joining Deni Avdija of the Portland Trail Blazers).